Informal Insurance with Endogenous Group Size

We present a theory of endogenous formation of insurance groups which combines heterogeneity on agents' risk aversion under asymmetric information and lack of enforceability of contracts. Income sharing inside the group is decided by majority voting and the size of the group adjusts to this decision through participation constraints. At equilibrium, all group members agree on the same imperfect level of income sharing, which yields a constrained-efficient equilibrium. Comparative statics on the risk faced by the community provide interesting results. A mean preserving spread of income implies more income sharing and a larger group size. New members, and possibly even old members may be better o¤, while non-members are worse-o¤. These results have relevant policy implications.

World Atlas of Desertification - Introductory Brochure

The brochure introduces the concept of the World Atlas of Desertification which relies on converging evidence of combined human-environment processes pointing out that land degradation cannot be modeled satisfactorily at global scales.The introductory brochure provides a short overview of the main land degradation issues, through illustration of a number key global datasets and some case study examples that reflect the global patterns and pathways to solutions. The brochure start with highlighting the human dominance that drives global environmental changes. The consequences of feeding a growing population include agriculture expansion and intensification, illustrated by maps and data on irrigation and nutrient use. Aridity and drought are important phenomena aggravating the already present human pressures on the environment. Other pressure patterns playing at global scale are illustrated with examples from China, India, S. America and the Sahel, along with a forward view on solutions.JRC.H.5-Land Resources Managemen

Potential of FX06 to prevent disease progression in hospitalized non-intubated COVID-19 patients — the randomized, EU-wide, placebo-controlled, phase II study design of IXION

Background: More than 2.7 million hospitalizations of COVID-19-infected patients have occurred in Europe alone since the outbreak of the coronavirus in 2020. Interventions against SARS-CoV-2 are still in high need to prevent admissions to ICUs worldwide. FX06, a naturally occurring peptide in humans and other mammals, has the potential to reduce capillary leak by improving endothelial dysfunction and thus preventing the deterioration of patients. With IXION, we want to investigate the potential of FX06 to prevent disease progression in hospitalized, non-intubated COVID-19 patients. Methods: IXION is an EU-wide, multicentre, placebo-controlled, double-blinded, parallel, randomized (2:1) phase II clinical study. Patient recruitment will start in September 2022 (to Q2/2023) in Germany, Italy, Lithuania, Spain, Romania, Portugal, and France. A total of 306 hospitalized patients (>= 18 years and < 75 years) with a positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR test and a COVID-19 severity of 4-6 according to the WHO scale will be enrolled. After randomization to FX06 or placebo, patients will be assessed until day 28 (and followed up until day 60). FX06 (2 x 200 mg per day) or placebo will be administered intravenously for 5 consecutive days. The primary endpoint is to demonstrate a difference in the proportion of patients with progressed/worsened disease state in patients receiving FX06 compared to patients receiving placebo. Secondary endpoints are lung function, oxygen saturation and breathing rate, systemic inflammation, survival, capillary refill time, duration of hospital stay, and drug accountability. Discussion: With IXION, the multidisciplinary consortium aims to deliver a new therapy in addition to standard care against SARS-CoV-2 for the clinical management of COVID-19 during mild and moderate stages. Potential limitations might refer to a lack of recruiting and drop-out due to various possible protocol violations. While we controlled for drop-outs in the same size estimation, recruitment problems may be subject to external problems difficult to control for

On the interaction between risk-taking and risk-sharing under farm household wealth heterogeneity

Empirical evidence on developing countries shows on the one hand that rich farm-households are more keen to adopt new technologies and are higher risk takers than poor households. On the other hand, however, they are shown to be less vulnerable to income shocks than poor farmers. This paper provides a rationale for these observations. Risk averse agents, heterogeneously endowed with wealth, non-cooperatively decide on their level of subscription to risk-sharing and on the degree of individual production risk they take. Rich households take more risks and subscribe more to risk-sharing. Although risk-sharing allows all households to cope with idiosyncratic shocks, the risk-taking behavior of rich households increases the covariate component of poor households' income variance through risk-sharing, deterring the participation of the poor. These poor households in turn opt for safer but less productive production plans

Evaluation of an index-based risk management contract for agricultural activities

This paper proposes and evaluates area index-based financial contracts for specific farm activities. These financial contracts allow not only for removing moral hazard and adverse selection as index insurances do, but also for adding more flexibility and, hence, better risk protection. The evaluation of these financial contracts uses FADN farm data of Belgium from 1990 to 2007. Area indexes based on yield and yield-in-value perform well in stabilising revenues from some farm activities, but badly from some others. The variation in the estimated actuarially fair premiums across agricultural area shows the importance of designing those financial contracts according to homogenous agricultural area

Longitudinal profiling of the lung microbiome in the AERIS study demonstrates repeatability of bacterial and eosinophilic COPD exacerbations

Background: Alterations in the composition of the lung microbiome associated with adverse clinical outcomes, known as dysbiosis, have been implicated with disease severity and exacerbations in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).Objective: To characterize longitudinal changes in the lung microbiome in the AERIS study (Acute Exacerbation and Respiratory Infections in COPD) and their relationship with associated COPD outcomes.Methods: We surveyed 584 sputum samples from 101 COPD patients to analyze the lung microbiome at both stable and exacerbation time points over one year using highthroughput sequencing of the 16S ribosomal RNA gene. We incorporated additional lung microbiology, blood markers, and in-depth clinical assessments to classify COPD phenotypes.Results: The stability of the lung microbiome over time was more likely to be decreased in exacerbations and within individuals with higher exacerbation frequencies. Analysis of exacerbation phenotypes using a Markov chain model revealed that bacterial and eosinophilic exacerbations were more likely to be repeated in subsequent exacerbations within a subject, whereas viral exacerbations were not more likely to be repeated. We also confirmed the association of bacterial genera, including Haemophilus and Moraxella, with disease severity, exacerbation events, and bronchiectasis.Conclusions: Subtypes of COPD have distinct bacterial compositions and stabilities over time. Some exacerbation subtypes have non-random probabilities of repeating those subtypes in the future. This study provides insights pertaining to the identification of bacterial targets in the lung and biomarkers to classify COPD subtypes and to determine appropriate treatments for the patient